The Mobile Technology Weblog: Dell’s First Cell Phone to Run Android

Cameron’s ‘Avatar’ Near Global Movie Sales Record (Update1) – BusinessWeek

Flurry Holiday 2009 Report: App Store, iPod Touch Shatter Records

Apple Tablet: The Second Stage Media Booster Rocket

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I can confirm what the Los Angeles Times reported 7 days ago that the Tablet will actually be called the “Canvas.” It will roughly be an eight to ten inch screen. It will run on the iPhone OS (Not the Mac). Bloomberg has speculated that Jobs will also announce that the iPhone and the Canvas will be released to all the other carriers. As I wrote late last year, this will mitigate many of the problems iPhone users face today with bandwidth usage and dropped calls. I can tell you that the iPhone will NOT be released to all carriers. It may be opened to another besides AT&T but don’t expect to be able to go to any store in the big 4(TMobile, Sprint, Verizon, and AT&T) and order up an iPhone to go.

What more have you heard?

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Since April, Web requests coming from an Android phone have increased almost six fold. 20% of all smartphone traffic comes from an Android device. 2 Android phones, the G1 and the HTC dream, are in the top 10 of devices purchased.

This is a boon for Android and if trends continue, Android will be the dominant player in the market for mobile devices.

Apple is not without options. Soon it can open up the monopoly AT&T has enjoyed and distribute its handset across multiple carriers. The iPhone, historically, has held the mindshare of the market.

Keep in mind too that Apple is more than just an iPhone company. With its rumored, “iPad,” coming next year, Apple will add yet another item to its stack of products . . . all designed to work together. And what ties them all together . . . iTunes.

iTunes is, historically, the most successful distribution model for downloading music. Consumers learned to use the “App Store,” by being conditioned to use iTunes for the iPod. As such, every mobile device is also judged by the power of its app store. In 2010, Apple is estimated have more than 300,000 “apps” available for download compared to around 100,000 available to Android. And every app is also another capability available for that platform.

And Apple has another product using the App Store than just the iPhone. According to Flurry’s Industry pulse, “it’s important to remember that the iPhone’s flank is protected by an often overlooked, powerful fighting brand: iPod Touch.” According to the study “24 million” of the 58 million Apple devices sold are the iPod Touch.

iTunes is a mammoth differentiator for Apple. It allows for the users to sync their devices and share information in a single household that includes music, photos, videos and data. And it is the single best reason why, if Apple can open up the device to more than one carrier, it will continue down its dominant path.

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In 2008, Google announced they were building a mobile operating system, Android. With Android, a user can enjoy many of the same features that exist on the iPhone. It is backed by the Open Handset Alliance, a consortium of over 50 companies focusing on open standards in the Mobile space. With October marking the one year anniversary of the Android G1, there has been a steady increase in handset deployment and Android usage.

According to the latest AdMob reports:

Since April, Web requests coming from an Android phone have increased almost six fold. 20% of all smartphone traffic comes from an Android device. 2 Android phones, the G1 and the HTC dream, are in the top 10 of devices purchased.

These numbers are about to increase.

Most recently, the Motorola Droid, another Android phone launched and after only two weeks, it comprised 24% of all Android requests.
According to the New York Times, we should see even more phones launched with Android technology before 2010 becomes a reality.

As the dysfunctional marriage between Apple and AT&T twists and tweaks many of its users into a frustrated frenzy, Google and its Open Handset Alliance, if left unchecked, will soon become the dominant player in the Industry. It’s distributed manufacturer strategy automatically creates a distributed network strategy. The capabilities appear similar to many casual users. And the price of an Android phone, aka Google Phone, is less expensive by comparison.

What can Apple do? You’ll have my recommendations next week.

**Update: Chris Brogan’s lastest post is a real world example of my claim that AT&T’s failings become a boon for Android.

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We begin to suffer.

We live in an increasingly mobile world. According to recent studies, one in four households are cellphone only. Of those that have cell phones, 40 percent of those are what we refer to as “SmartPhones.” What is driving the use of Smartphones? First I claim biology. Our bodies are limited by what we can do without technology. Second, I claim sociology. We see others (friends, family, colleagues) using technology, now readily available and we marvel about how much more convenient and practical they are able to move in the world with one of these devices.

Assuming this all sounds reasonable, how are we suffering? Consumers are noticing and demanding this technology, businesses aren’t readily listening fast enough.

Case in point: The iPhone and AT&T.

According to the latest AdMob report, the iPhone accounts for 50% of all Web traffic coming from a “SmartPhone.”

Ad Mob Metrics - SmartPhone Requests

Also, the iPhone has capabilities embedded in the device that AT&T can’t allow because of the breakdowns they are experiencing with their network. Only in September did AT&T make available, a seemingly basic ability, picture messaging. Tethering with the iPhone (the ability to use the iPhone as a modem for a laptop) while existing on the iPhone as evidenced through hacks, won’t be available officially until sometime in 2010.

We are living a lifestyle the world isn’t quite ready for. Consumer demand is a pandora’s box that can’t be reversed. What does this mean for our future? Come back tomorrow and I’ll help you notice what I speculate this will mean for our future.

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1. Think before acting – In the case study, my friend had already made a decision, long ago actually, that having an app on the iPhone was the right place for his business. There’s so much talk about the iPhone these days but ultimately its still a “walled-in” platform where only a subset of users have access. There’s lots of data out there to suggest that other platforms or architectures should also be considered.

In general, thinking is a good practice but one that small businesses rarely give themselves the space to do. Startups give in to the pressure of acting quickly and decisively. The premise of “Ready, Fire, Aim” (Aim is the thinking part here) is to do something quickly but also inexpensively in order to get some necessary feedback about your application. This iPhone experience for my friend was EXTREMELY expensive. But it might have all been avoided if they looked at other less expensive mobile platforms than just the iPhone.

“Aiming” is actually the most important part of the equation and not the “Firing.” In that scenario, you’re only doing something so you can begin to think . . . powerfully. If that’s the case, “firing” had better be low cost.

2. Be alert for what you are paying for – In general, the least expensive way to transact for something is with money, but keep in mind what it is, exactly, that you are transacting for. When you pay someone to build an application for you, are you just paying for the application? Here’s what you should also pay for:

a. Take care of your concerns – Your primary expertise is probably not Mobile application development or any type of development. These are rough and savage waters and you need someone to lead you and take care of you until the application is complete. You need someone competent and mature enough who knows how to move you and your business to a safe place.

b. Integrity – Dealing with people of Integrity is low cost in any of the ways we transact in business. As I mentioned earlier, this application has become extremely expensive for my friend. First, they still have no application that was contracted for months ago, all due to the cost of that developers integrity. What is the cost? Time? Money? Energy? Resources? All of the above. He spent his time worrying and waiting for the application to be finished. He paid the developer money that he’ll never get back. He spent energy trying to find someone else who will finish the application. And he’s trying to find resources to fund an activity (family, friends, business partners, etc.) that will help him achieve his business goals. Not to mention all the time he’s spent talking to his loved ones about how stressed he is that he can’t get his business to place he envisioned over a year ago.

c. A Partner – You may have contextual needs that you need to transact for as well. For instance, you may wish to project manage the activity yourself or you may not. You may need some help thinking and acting in other parts of your business. A partner is someone you can trust and can turn to when you face a breakdown. It’s better for your business to have really smart people around you no matter where you turn. Knowing those that help you think are powerful people to have around.

3. Understand the business opportunity – What is an average customer worth? How many more customers do you expect to have after your application is finished? How grounded are those expectations? Business owners who look only at what they can afford are typically only interested in earning what they need to make a living. If you have grounded an assessment that within a year you can expect to make 60,000 dollars and it will cost you 20,000 dollars to do it, 20,000 doesn’t seem like much of a cost at all. Many business owners, though, have no clear picture of the business opportunity before them and when they see a cost figure like 10k or 20k they might scoff and try to find anyone who will do it for a much lower price. See items #1 and #2 above.

What have I missed? What’s flawed? I’d love to read your thoughts.

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The iPhone developer “flaked” out. He couldn’t finish the application.

After installing the incomplete application on my phone, I could see first hand what was finished and what wasn’t. I saw some functionality was complete, but after talking to my friend about the capability that was most important to him, I soon realized, it was noticeably missing from the application.

Also, the User Experience was extremely poor. What my friend thought was 80% complete was actually, in my assessment, maybe 50% complete and that’s generous. The capability they longed for was missing and their user experience was non-existent. My friend needed help. I approached this problem in the following ways.

1. This iPhone application was critical to their business. Their business was social media and their users would use the iPhone to interact with their friends in real time and record things as they happened. This capability was a cornerstone of their strategic differentiator. This had to be completed.

2. I didn’t want to be responsible for code written by someone else. The lack of attention given to the user experience meant I was going to have to refactor most of the code anyway.

3. I wasn’t sold that the application should necessarily be an iPhone application. “Smartphone” users account for 40% of all cell phone usage here in a America. Of those, around a fifth of users have iPhones. And of those who own iPhones, according to Forrester research, almost 70% are those making over 70k a year. I wasn’t sold that the demographic of their business fits that category.

I offered him three options:

A. I offered to finish his iPhone application. In spite of the fact that I didn’t want to be responsible for the code, this potential client could really benefit by getting the app out into the world and observe his users beta testing how they use it. The business needs of my client come before mine.

B. I offered to build his iPhone application from scratch. My client needed something different than what he paid for and received. He needed to be taken care of and he clearly wasn’t. The process and tools my partners and I use are geared to take care of a clients needs.

C. I offered to help him analyze his mobile/technical strategy. The problem with startups/small companies is that they are always in “do” mode. They don’t often stop to “think” about what powerful options are available to them next week, next month and the impact of those choices for next year. I don’t necessarily think that the iPhone is best option for this company going forward. After a week or so, I would have the answers he could use to make a powerful decision on his own. *This was my recommended option*

I also threw something extra into my proposal. Integrity is important. When you give your word on when you’ll have something done, others will not have to wonder if you have integrity or not. You either complete it or you don’t. Not having integrity is costly for everyone. So I also offered that if he cooperated with me as a stipulation in the contract, and I didn’t deliver when I said I would, I would waive my fee.

This way, he didn’t have to worry if his partner would “flake” out. It’s written into the contract that delivery is guaranteed. “Not worrying” is low cost for everyone. My friend can concentrate on his core business and help me with the planning and design of the application and can rest easy knowing that at a certain time, the work would be complete. If you’ve ever transacted for something to be done, you know, first-hand, how low cost that is. But its also profitable for those for whom are willing to have Integrity be a strategic differentiator.

Tomorrow, I’ll provide some key learnings that small/medium businesses can take away from this case study.

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